Yong Wen railway line particularly serious accidents not only cause significant personal injury and direct property damage, and its influence continues to ferment. Tragedy by the motor car rear-end impact, the railway section 25 A shares collective slump and drag A shares fell 3 percent, the highest decline in the past six months the most. Analysts also pointed out that this tragedy occurred, is bound to high-speed rail construction in full swing to bring significant influence to ensure “safety first”, high-speed rail construction will slow down.
More worrying is that the market had expected high-speed railway construction will drive the rapid development of related industries and regions, to become one of China’s economic locomotive, but a series of accidents so that “high-speed rail myth” is no longer, people the confidence badly shaken, probably from the psychological impact on China’s economic development.
“7.23” Yongwen particularly important railway line traffic, in the capital market soon to get feedback on.
Shanghai and Shenzhen stock Tiaokongdikai Monday, showing a unilateral down trend. Which, by the “7.23” effects of the accident, railway infrastructure sector led by the two cities, investor sentiment is greatly affected. As of the closing stock index fell 82 points, down 2.96%, the highest since mid-January this year, the biggest one-day drop since records; decline in Shenzhen Component Index is up 3.13%. Panic selling poured out, the two cities turnover of 220 billion yuan.
Judging from the disk, the largest decline of rail infrastructure sector 6.67%, of which Jin billion industry, Pegasus shares, times new material and many other high-speed rail stocks only limit. Country prefix railroad stocks also hit hard, which fell 9.69% China CNR, China South Locomotive down 8.90%, down 5.71% China Railway, China Railway Construction fell 5.91%. Not only A-share stocks plummeted railway, H shares, railway stocks are miserable. China South Locomotive & H shares which tumbled 14%, CSR Times Electric H-shares plunged 14.1%, China H-shares plunged 19.1% automated.
British Institute of Lida Xiao Tai Securities, says, “7.23” high-speed rail accident a greater impact on market sentiment, driven by high-iron plate fell down the other plate, the more intense the market panic. Not rule out pre-market low of 2610 points will be tested. Xiangcai Securities strategist Xu Guangfu also pointed out that, in addition to being implicated high-speed rail stocks, the Hang deep motor car rear-end accident led the second half of investors in China’s development prospects of new industries have doubts, but also an important cause of crash on Monday. Currently, the market lose morale, stock down to the next or previous low point test 2610.
A private equity fund manager in the afternoon of micro-Bo wrote: “Railway accidents are caused by more far-reaching impact of the current strength of each investment are thinking. More far-reaching impact is the railway accident to remind the Chinese economy’s fundamental model there is a serious problem, simply need to do the conversion. convert one of the core is significantly reduced growth rate, especially the investment rate, improve safety, improve quality, if this change of thinking has been verified one by one, the impact will be on the market far-reaching. “
Or slow down the entire industry
Over the past six months, the former Minister of Railways Liu Zhijun for “serious violation” and be removed from office, the newly appointed Minister of Railways Sheng Guangzu out of security concerns, announced a drastic reduction of the maximum high-speed rail train. The newly built Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has been suspended several times troubled. Rear-end and the frequent failure of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail to the entire high-speed rail industry sounded the alarm.
Railway high debt, high cost of issuing bonds is an indisputable fact. Data show that the Ministry of Railways of the debt has tripled in two years, reaching 1.98 trillion yuan. On Thursday, the Ministry of Railways has just experienced a rare over the years a “lost” — the tender issued in the third period short-term financing bonds to stream standard. Rear-end accident, the Ministry of Railways once again into the multi-party challenge in the market, the Ministry of Railways bonds, misfortunes.
Emirates International bond rating in the report, mentioned disadvantages faced by the Ministry of Railways: “With the expansion of railway construction, the Ministry of Railways will continue to expand the scale of debt; the same time, the overall level of rail freight is not high, the costs under the influence of other factors, the profitability of the Ministry of Railways are subject to certain restrictions. “
Guotai Junan research report published, high-speed rail operators will be hardest hit, the Ministry of Railways will be expected to pay more attention to security issues of railway operations, railway construction pace will slow further, related railway equipment business growth will be affected.
Like falling dominoes, rear-end accident involved a huge iron chain. Some analysts said that the current implementation does not cause rear-end accidents, resulting in high-speed rail links in each chain are under suspicion.
According to the reporter, to participate in China’s high-speed rail in the chain of 32 listed companies. Three GEM listed companies Terios Germany, century Riel, good hearing as a result of the accident, the Phenom line of systems and equipment suppliers, 25, has been the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before the opening of the temporary suspension. Terios de midday related products to clarify the incident and after the afternoon still fell 8.93%. 25 high-speed rail stocks of all earthquakes, the sharp decline in overall fell 6.67%, ranking first in each section, North China car, China South Locomotive is also about 9% decline.
Is worth noting that stocks of high-speed rail heavy losses not just stay in the book, some heavily loaded high-speed rail stocks institutional investors fell from the high-speed rail concept as a whole feel the bursts of coolness. For example, China North China South Locomotive and cars fell, let a lot of fund heartbroken. Statistics show that the end of June there are 12 funds held by China South Locomotive and 216 million shares, while 15 vehicles in North China the number of shares was 182 million shares. Preliminary estimates, July 25 China North China South Locomotive and cars both fell during the one-day total losses of the Fund up to 128 million yuan and 1.15 billion yuan. Analysts believe that the stock price plunge “North-South train” or to some extent as the Fund’s performance “killer” and other high-speed rail stocks on the net impact of the underlying funds will gradually emerge.
China High Speed Rail exports of Broken Dreams
Rear-end accidents fell from the sky, lie in China’s export of high-speed rail dream before.
According to the International Union of Railways statistics, except for China, more than 10 countries are building the existing high-speed rail over the next 10 years, the new mileage will reach 10,000 km. If the cost of overseas iron unit equivalent to 300 million yuan capital / km, the next 10 years of overseas high-speed rail infrastructure market capacity will reach 3 trillion.
According to the original estimate, the influence of high-speed railway in China to gradually expand to the world, especially developing countries relatively backward infrastructure. China South Locomotive and hope that through 10 years of development time and high-speed rail originator of Alstom, Siemens compete for the world market. In early July, China South Locomotive Intercity EMU, exported the first time in Malaysia, as a breakthrough, but it occurred in a few days of rear-end events that shocked the world compete for the world market will be affected. Today, only questioned the quality of EMU, even if there is no conclusive evidence, is enough to bring concerns about cancellation of orders.
Called “slowed down and re-grasp the quality”
In addition to industry will be affected, event or rear-end high-speed rail will cause some of the macroeconomic impact. “Let China’s economy slow down, turn to pay more attention to quality” media story led to many people’s voices. China’s economy may actually be faster from a fight to change the quality of the fight.
25, Dean of Economics, Fudan University, Jian Sun told reporters that the incident is a turning point high-speed rail representation, need to look at disclosure of information, can be completely transparent to expose the causes of the incident. Information disclosure more nights, people suspected of high-speed rail industry began to spread, until suspicion to every aspect of the result across the board look empty. “To investigate not only the quality of economic development, as well as management issues.” Jian Sun said that once the problems in quality, high-speed rail may be relatively large impact on the industry. It reflects the over-ambitious, not only on quality at speed. In the long-term development, to slowed down and re-grasp quality. If you are in management issues, and that must fully understand the high-tech small probability of mass destruction, attention management, reduce the risk of accidents. “Small probability events can easily lead to disaster.” Jian Sun that the moving truck is reflected in rapid economic development is just hardware to keep up, but not a good management system perfect, “allows people to develop the hardware too superstitious and rely on high technology, and people’s initiative is not well mobilized. ” Jian Sun, said the healthy economic development requires a comprehensive dual insurance system, once the automation failure, labor can alleviate the crisis.
From the industrial point of view, high-speed railway construction itself is a huge chain, in terms of the construction process, covering infrastructure, laying, vehicle acquisition and production operations management, and many other stage, a huge concentration of large-scale investment and construction of the whole industry chain focus benefit, long-term radiation, involving a wide range of stakeholders and a large number of industry and population.
From a strategic point of view, China’s high-speed rail planning in the industrial structure adjustment of status with ease. Jian Sun also said that the group hit the high iron plate, on the economic impact of the moment or short-term behavior. Jian Sun believes that the market will return to normal, “I development of high-speed rail is still promising, especially the city trend, high-speed rail industry is a potential and developmental.”